What the data says, treating the 10Y-3M spread as the only signal.
2022-24 inversion was historically extreme. 780 days inverted (Oct 2022 to Dec 2024), deepest -1.89pp May 2023. More than 2x longer than the prior longest (315 days, 2006-07) and deeper than 2007. Both depth and duration historically extend the lead time before recession.
Past inversion-to-recession lead times (post-1982):
| Un-inverted | Recession | Lead |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1989 | Jul 1990 | 7 mo |
| Jan 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 mo |
| May 2007 | Dec 2007 | 7 mo |
| Oct 2019 | Feb 2020 | 4 mo |
Median lead from un-inversion: ~7 months. The 2022-24 inversion's depth and duration argues for the longer end.
Where we are now. Main inversion un-inverted Dec 2024. Eight short re-inversions through 2025 (longest 26 days). Most recent ended Oct 17 2025. Latest reading +0.62pp.
Prediction (yield curve alone):
1973 caveat. 1973 inversion-to-recession lead was only ~4 months — oil shock acted as the trigger, with the curve as confirmation. If 2026 follows the 1973 template, the curve's own forecast becomes too late.
Integrated read: yield curve says recession Q3 2026 to Q2 2027 (Q = quarter, H = half). Comparing to 1973 specifically argues for earlier than the curve says.
No data.
| date | indicator | type | description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | au_auction_volume | band_change | au_auction_volume moved from amber to green at value 2124.0000 (800-2) |
| 2026-06-14 | au_total_listings | band_change | au_total_listings moved from amber to green at value 79510.0000 (60-80k — current normal range) |
| 2026-05-31 | au_auction_volume | band_change | au_auction_volume moved from green to amber at value 2681.0000 (Above 2) |
| 2026-05-31 | au_vacancy_rate | band_change | au_vacancy_rate moved from green to amber at value 1.4000 (1-1.5% — tight; rent inflation pressure) |
| 2026-05-27 | qld_diesel_pump | band_change | qld_diesel_pump moved from amber to green at value 221.5000 (Below 240c/L — within tolerable range) |
| 2026-05-21 | us_yield_curve | band_change | us_yield_curve moved from red to green at value 0.8900 (No qualifying inversion in 24+ months) |
| 2026-05-17 | au_auction_volume | band_change | au_auction_volume moved from amber to green at value 1939.0000 (800-2) |
| 2026-05-11 | us_brent_wti_spread | band_change | us_brent_wti_spread moved from amber to green at value 2.6500 (-$2 to $5/bbl - normal arbitrage range) |
| 2026-05-10 | au_home_value_index_28d | band_change | au_home_value_index_28d moved from green to amber at value 0.1000 (-0.3 to 0.2% — stagnation / inflexion zone) |
| 2026-05-10 | au_total_listings | band_change | au_total_listings moved from green to amber at value 80108.0000 (80-95k — above current; watch zone) |
| 2026-05-10 | qld_diesel_pump | band_change | qld_diesel_pump moved from crisis to amber at value 242.9000 (240–270c/L — elevated) |
| 2026-05-01 | us_housing_starts | band_change | us_housing_starts moved from green to amber at value 1177.0000 (900-1200k - cooling; watch zone) |
| 2026-05-01 | us_temp_employment_yoy | band_change | us_temp_employment_yoy moved from red to amber at value -0.9192 (-2 to 0% - temp employment contracting; warning) |
| 2026-04-30 | westpac_mi_sentiment | band_change | westpac_mi_sentiment moved from unknown to amber at value 80.1000 (80-90 - cautious; consumption flat) |
| 2026-04-27 | us_brent_wti_spread | band_change | us_brent_wti_spread moved from unknown to amber at value 8.3400 ($5-10/bbl - tankers tight) |
| 2026-04-26 | au_auction_volume | band_change | au_auction_volume moved from unknown to amber at value 757.0000 (Below 800 — light week (Easter / Jan slow-down typical)) |
| 2026-04-26 | auction_clearance | band_change | auction_clearance moved from unknown to amber at value 60.7000 (60–70% — normal balanced market) |
| 2026-04-26 | aud_usd | band_change | aud_usd moved from unknown to green at value 0.7153 (0.65–0.72 — normal range) |
| 2026-04-24 | all_ords | band_change | all_ords moved from unknown to green at value 9006.4004 (Above 8,000 — normal/strong) |
| 2026-04-24 | brent_oil | band_change | brent_oil moved from green to amber at value 99.1300 ($60–100 — normal range) |
| 2026-04-24 | iron_ore | band_change | iron_ore moved from unknown to green at value 107.1000 (Above $100 — China demand robust) |
| 2026-04-24 | us_yield_curve | band_change | us_yield_curve moved from green to red at value 0.6200 (Currently inverted) |
| 2026-04-23 | us_hy_credit_spreads | band_change | us_hy_credit_spreads moved from unknown to green at value 2.8600 (2-4% - normal range) |
| 2026-04-19 | au_vacancy_rate | band_change | au_vacancy_rate moved from amber to green at value 1.5000 (1.5-3% — healthy balanced range) |
| 2026-04-19 | qld_diesel_pump | band_change | qld_diesel_pump moved from unknown to crisis at value 296.9000 (270–300c/L — sharp household pain) |
| 2026-04-18 | us_jobless_claims | band_change | us_jobless_claims moved from crisis to green at value 210.7500 (200-280k - normal range) |
| 2026-04-12 | au_home_value_index_28d | band_change | au_home_value_index_28d moved from unknown to green at value 0.4000 (0.2 to 0.8% — normal growth band) |
| 2026-04-12 | au_total_listings | band_change | au_total_listings moved from unknown to green at value 75145.0000 (60-80k — current normal range) |
| 2026-04-12 | au_vacancy_rate | band_change | au_vacancy_rate moved from unknown to amber at value 1.5000 (1.5-3% — healthy balanced range) |
| 2026-04-01 | us_sahm_rule | band_change | us_sahm_rule moved from amber to green at value 0.1300 (Below 0.3 - below trigger threshold) |